For India, China is main rival & Pakistan an ancillary security issue: US intel
Pakistan considers India an “existential threat” and will continue to pursue efforts to modernise its military and develop its battlefield or tactical nuclear weapons to offset New Delhi’s conventional military advantage, the US Defence Intelligence Agency (DIA) has said.
In its ‘World Threat Assessment’ report, which notes India’s Operation Sindoor to strike terror hubs in Pakistan and the subsequent escalation in hostilities, the DIA says PM Modi’s defence priorities will “probably focus” on demonstrating global leadership, countering China, and enhancing India’s military power. “India views China as primary adversary and Pakistan more as an ancillary security problem to be managed, despite cross-border attacks in mid-May by both militaries,” the report said.
China has played a big role in facilitating a proliferation nexus to help Pakistan and North Korea to steadily boost their nuclear and ballistic missile arsenals over the years.
Global estimates say India and Pakistan have around 170 N-warheads each, with Islamabad also frequently brandishing its short-range Nasr (Hatf-IX) and other missiles as a counter to New Delhi’s conventional military superiority, as earlier reported by TOI.
The report says China’s nuclear stockpile has probably crossed 600 operational warheads. “We estimate China will have over 1,000 operational warheads by 2030, much of which will be deployed at higher readiness levels for faster response times,” it said.
‘Pak primarily a recipient of China’s military largesse’
Pakistan is modernising its nuclear arsenal and maintaining the security of its nuclear material, and command and control structures. “Pakistan almost certainly procures WMD (weapons of mass destruction)-applicable goods from foreign suppliers and intermediaries,” the report says.
Early on May 10, India had struck nine airbases in Pakistan in what constituted some clear strategic messaging before the understanding on ceasing hostilities came into effect in the evening. In particular, the deep precision hits on the Nur Khan and Sargodha airbases rattled Pakistan. Nur Khan in Rawalpindi is located close to the headquarters of Pakistan’s Strategic Plans Division that handles the country’s nuclear arsenal.
The DIA report says Pakistan “primarily is a recipient” of Beijing’s “economic and military largesse”, and its forces conduct multiple military exercises with Chinese forces every year.
“Foreign material and technology supporting Pakistan’s WMD programmes are very likely acquired primarily from suppliers in China, and sometimes are transhipped through Hong Kong, Singapore, Turkiye, and the UAE,” it says.
The report says India is giving priority to advancing its bilateral, trilateral and quadrilateral defence partnerships in the Indian Ocean Region and Indo-Pacific through exercises, training, arms sales and information sharing to counter China’s influence and boost its global leadership role.
India will almost certainly continue promoting its ‘Made in India’ initiative this year to build its domestic defence industry, mitigate supply chain concerns, and modernise its military, it says.
In 2024, India conducted a test of its nuclear-capable Agni-I Prime medium-range ballistic missile and the Agni-V multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicle (multiple warheads on a single missile). “India also commissioned its second nuclear-powered submarine (INS Arighaat) to strengthen its nuclear triad and bolster its ability to deter adversaries,” it says.
Referring to troop disengagement in Depsang and Demchok in eastern Ladakh in Oct last year, the report says it “did not resolve the long-standing dispute about border demarcation but reduced some tension still lingering” since the Galwan clash in 2020.
